That's difficult to predict, but members of the country's small and embattled opposition have already raised questions about tampering and irregularities in the referendum. Polls have been open for early voting since last week, a measure cast by election officials as a coronavirus precaution to allow social distancing.
Some Russians have taken to social media to show their preference, posting NYET (no) on their profiles. Residents of Moscow and other large cities glued anti-Putin stickers next to pro-amendments posters. Others have taken note of a curious fact: Copies of the constitution recently went on sale in bookstores, with the amendments already included, something widely commented on in social media. That suggested to many Russians that the fix was in.
Even before the vote kicked off last week, independent outlets and NGOs posted dozens of screenshots and audio messages suggesting forced voting by employers of big corporations and state-financed organizations.
"In the past few days we have also seen a large numbers of ballot stuffing, so it feels like at some stage it was clear to [the organizers] that the administrative resources to mobilize controlled electorate are running out, they may also be voting in a slightly different way compared to a desired one and they've resorted to good old ways of rigging," Stanislav Andreychuk, co-charman of the non-governmental group Golos, told CNN.
According to Andreychuk, this plebiscite is way less regulated than previous elections his organization monitored: Voting booths set up on park benches violate the secrecy of voting, the usual restrictions on releasing exit polls are not enforced and unregulated campaigning -- aided by raffles promising apartments to lure voters to stations -- muddy the voter's right to freely exercise their will.
Widespread allegations of voting fraud that followed 2011 parliamentary elections led to a wave of pro-democracy protests that deeply worried the Kremlin, but Wednesday's referendum results appear to be a foregone conclusion.
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